Are We in Cold War 2.0—The China Chapter?
Many seek answers to whether the “East” and “West” are engaging in a “new” Cold War. The term Cold War is defined as “a state of political hostility between countries characterized by threats, propaganda, and other measures short of open warfare.” It applies to the state of tension between the Eastern and Western Blocs over the period from 1945 to 1991. The Korean War from 1950 to 1953 and the Vietnam War from 1954 to 1975 were the two most “open” proxy wars of the Cold War. Open warfare between the Communist East and the Capitalist West cost 3.2 million people. The Korean War cost at least two and a half million lives. They called them “Proxy Wars” in that they were between two lesser

combatants, the north and south of both countries, with the help of the East and West Blocs. What about the revolutions that created the East Bloc? The Russian Revolution of 1917 and the Russian Civil War of 1918 to 1920 gave rise to the Soviet Union and cost the lives of

countless Russians. Of course, these numbers pale to insignificance if you consider Milton Leitenberg’s estimate in his book Deaths in War and Conflicts in the 20th Century. He has calculated that 231 million died in thirty-six conflicts “by human decision” during the 20th century. Still, had the Cold War between the USSR and the US turned hot, most agree it would have been catastrophic, if not terminal, for our world. Whether we are in or approaching a new Cold War, first, the case for “yes,” and note the not-so-subtle change of Cold War opponents.

The US Republican Party’s view, as expressed by ex-US Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher and deputy US National Security Advisor to US President Donald Trump Matt Pottinger, argued for “yes.” They claim China is already waging a cold war against the US. In their view, the US should acknowledge this and try to win the battle. They wrote, “Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vilified dovish former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. He has fashioned his leadership style after that of Joseph Stalin. He has proved he is not a leader with whom Americans can solve problems. He is a chaotic agent and the leader of a country that assists Russia in the Ukraine conflict and spreads anti-US propaganda.” American foreign policy analyst and expert Elizabeth Economy agrees. “It’s undeniable Xi wants to remake the world on terms more favourable to China,” she says. “He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and remove Western values from international bodies like the UN. In his new multipolar order, global institutions and norms will be underpinned by Chinese notions of common security and economic development, Chinese values of state-determined political rights, and Chinese technology.”

To continue with the “no” arguments, American political commentator and author Fareed Zakaria and others have argued, “Today’s China isn’t like the Cold War USSR. The Soviet Union saw its economic model sputter well before it collapsed. The 1970s’ oil-price surge extended its lifespan [until Russia invaded Ukraine]. Today, China has a diversified economy and a booming tech sector. Unlike the USSR, which was walled off with little commerce with the West, China has
intertwined itself with the West through massive [reciprocal] trade volumes.” The World

Bank points to China’s trade as a percentage of GDP at over 37% in 2023. It’s, therefore, unlikely that China would survive in its present form if it abandoned that lucrative trade. As Wang Jisi noted in a Foreign Affairs essay last year, China also seems uninterested in converting other countries to its political system, as the USSR sought to.” Fareed also quotes a substantive review essay by columnist Michael Hirsh of Foreign Policy, which touches on the above points and more. As a “balanced and farsighted middle-ground,” Hirsh acknowledges the book “New Cold Wars” by David Sanger, a Chief New York Times correspondent in Washington. For instance, Sanger points out that China still manufactures American iPhones, which may not change soon. Hirsh says, “We’re not in a cold war, which involves a zero-sum clash for total dominance, but a cold peace. That is a nonlethal competition of influence with no winner and no finish line. Today’s superpower politics aren’t as stark or deadly as in the 20th century. China is doing little to displace the international system that the United States and other Western powers created,” Hirsh argues. “Instead, China seems intent on beating the United States at its own game within its system. Many experts say Beijing has no choice if it wants to sustain its economy.” So far, China’s “threats, propaganda, and other measures short of open warfare” appear to have something to do with its “One China Policy,” specific to Taiwan. So, that buys the West time.

A “Second Cold War“, “Cold War II“, “New Cold War,” or “Cold War 2.0” refers to heightened political, social, ideological, informational, and military tensions in the 21st century. The term now relates to tensions between the US and China. However, it is also used to describe similar tensions between the US and Russia, the primary successor state of the former USSR. In both cases, it’s about protecting democracy from the dangers of autocracy we experienced with Hitler, Stalin, and Mao Zedong.

Some commentators have compared a new Cold War with the original, while others have discouraged using it to refer to current tensions.
The Harvard Gazette published a fascinating interview on 8 August 2023 with intelligence expert Calder Walton, author of the book “Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West.” He writes both Russia and China are seeking to topple the US from its pinnacle on the world stage. With Beijing’s blend of money, influence, and all-hands- on-deck approach, he sees it posing the more significant threat. So, take it from a Cold War veteran. If you aren’t concerned about today’s rising tensions, you should be! Should we allow another Cold War to happen, it could deteriorate into a global conflict between NATO nations and China, with the world’s most significant armed forces supported by the second largest, Russia. The West must wake up and end Putin’s 21st-century imperialistic ambitions. We must also quickly learn how to better manage the Chinese giant. The problem with Cold Wars is that it only takes one mistake; one arrogant, reckless, and trigger-happy idiot to turn it hot and a grave danger to the future of humankind.

Whether our current international tensions could descend into another Cold War, the pundits seem to be divided. So, are we wrong to call it Cold War 2.0? Yes, we have penalized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with heavy sanctions. However, so far, the West has left it at that. Yes, the West and China are competing for dominance. However, as long as mainland China doesn’t invade Taiwan and suck the West into it, the competition is on a global business level. It’s not foolproof, but the West has an advantage while buying so much from China. Perhaps we should stop calling it a New Cold War or Cold War 2.0 and make sure we don’t slide into another.